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dc.contributor.authorMoloney, Kitty
dc.contributor.authorRaghavendra, Srinivas
dc.date.accessioned2012-11-20T09:35:26Z
dc.date.available2012-11-20T09:35:26Z
dc.date.issued2012-11-20
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10379/3063
dc.description.abstractWe present evidence of phase transitions (periodic to chaotic and chaotic to chaotic) in the Dow Jones Industrial Index as it transitions from Bull to Bear market. There is also evidence of a completely unpredictable (i.e., nondeterministic) regime just as the market peaks. The noisy trader theory is suggested as the economic explanation for this unpredictability i.e. rational but uninformed traders chase noise rather than the usual macro economic and financial variables. We suggest that the collapse in determinism allows the dynamics of the market to break from the past and that the market is in fact piecewise deterministic. A principal component series is developed and named the random market indicator, (RMI). This can be used to indicate when the market is transitioning. The RMI indicator could be used by market participants, financial regulators and policy makers as an indicator of market crisis. During times of crises, quantitative risk estimation techniques such as stationary value at risk models, will give misleading results and should not be used.en_US
dc.formatapplication/pdfen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorking Paper Series;176
dc.subjectEconomicsen_US
dc.subjectRecurrence quantification analysisen_US
dc.subjectFinancial market collapseen_US
dc.subjectPhase transitionsen_US
dc.subjectQuantitative risk estimationen_US
dc.subjectBusiness & Economicsen_US
dc.subjectBusiness, Public Policy & Lawen_US
dc.subject.lcshFinancial risken_US
dc.titleExamining the dynamical transition in the Dow Jones Industrial Index from Bull to Bear market using Recurrence Quantification Analysisen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.description.peer-reviewedpeer-revieweden_US
dc.contributor.funderJ.E. Cairnes School of Business and Economicsen_US
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