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dc.contributor.authorNolan, Paul
dc.contributor.authorFlanagan, Jason
dc.contributor.editorEPA
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-05T13:17:36Z
dc.date.available2020-10-05T13:17:36Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.citationNolan, Paul, & Flanagan, Jason. (2020). Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland – A multi-model ensemble approach: Environmental Protection Agency.en_IE
dc.identifier.isbn978-1-84095-934-5
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10379/16202
dc.description.abstractThe method of regional climate modelling was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the 21st-century climate of Ireland. The regional climate model (RCM) simulations were run at high spatial resolution (3.8 and 4 km), the first systematic study of its kind at this scale, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the projections can be partly quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the projections. Simulations were run for the reference period 1981 2000 and the future period 2041 2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. The Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) RCMs were used to downscale the following Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate model (GCM) datasets: CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH (four ensemble members), HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. To account for the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions, the future climate was simulated under both the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios.en_IE
dc.description.sponsorshipThis report is published as part of the EPA Research Programme 2014–2020. The EPA Research Programme is a Government of Ireland initiative funded by the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment. It is administered by the Environmental Protection Agency, which has the statutory function of co-ordinating and promoting environmental research.en_IE
dc.formatapplication/pdfen_IE
dc.language.isoenen_IE
dc.publisherEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)en_IE
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/
dc.subjectRegional Climate Projectionsen_IE
dc.subjectIrelanden_IE
dc.subjecttemperatureen_IE
dc.subjectprecipitationen_IE
dc.subjectwinden_IE
dc.subjectsolar energyen_IE
dc.subjectfloodingen_IE
dc.subjectagricultureen_IE
dc.subjectevapotranspirationen_IE
dc.subjectextremesen_IE
dc.subjectCMIP IPCC WRF COSMO-CLMen_IE
dc.subjectRepresentative Concentration Pathway RCPen_IE
dc.subjectgreenhouse gasen_IE
dc.subjectconcentration emissionen_IE
dc.titleResearch 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland – A multi-model ensemble approachen_IE
dc.typeReporten_IE
dc.date.updated2020-10-02T16:57:24Z
dc.local.publishedsourcehttps://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/researchreport339/en_IE
dc.description.peer-reviewedpeer-reviewed
dc.contributor.funderDepartment of Communications, Climate Action and Environment, Irelanden_IE
dc.internal.rssid22908200
dc.local.contactPaul Nolan, Ichec, 7th Floor, The Tower,, Trinity Technology & Enterprise, Campus, Grand Canal Quay, D2. Email: paul.p.nolan@nuigalway.ie
dc.local.copyrightcheckedYes
dc.local.versionPUBLISHED
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland