dc.contributor.author | Simmonds, E. J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Campbell, A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Skagen, D. | |
dc.contributor.author | Roel, B. A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Kelly, C. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-09-20T16:24:45Z | |
dc.date.available | 2018-09-20T16:24:45Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2011-04-12 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Simmonds, E. J. Campbell, A.; Skagen, D.; Roel, B. A.; Kelly, C. (2011). Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus). ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 (5), 848-859 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1054-3139,1095-9289 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10379/13916 | |
dc.description.abstract | The assumption of a relationship between recruitment and a spawning stock is the cornerstone of the precautionary approach and may constrain the use of a maximum sustainable yield (MSY) target for fisheries management, because the failure to include such a relationship suggests that providing a measure of stock protection is unnecessary. The implications of fitting different functional forms and stochastic distributions to stock-and-recruit data are investigated. The importance of these considerations is shown by taking a practical example from management: the management plan for Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), a fish stock with an average annual catch of 600 000 t. The historical range of spawning-stock biomass is narrow, and historical data from a stock assessment explain only a small proportion of the recruitment variability. We investigate how best to reflect the uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship. Selecting a single model based on simple statistical criteria can have major consequences for advice and is problematic. Selecting a distribution of models with derived probabilities gives a more complete perception of uncertainty in dynamics. Differences in functional form, distribution of deviations, and variability of coefficients are allowed. The approach appropriately incorporates uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship for F-MSY estimation. | |
dc.publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) | |
dc.relation.ispartof | ICES Journal of Marine Science | |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/ | |
dc.subject | fisheries management | |
dc.subject | model probability | |
dc.subject | stock-recruit relationship | |
dc.subject | population-dynamics | |
dc.subject | fish recruitment | |
dc.subject | climate-change | |
dc.subject | regime shifts | |
dc.subject | management | |
dc.subject | ecosystem | |
dc.subject | fisheries | |
dc.subject | sea | |
dc.subject | strategy | |
dc.subject | proposal | |
dc.title | Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) | |
dc.type | Article | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1093/icesjms/fsr014 | |
dc.local.publishedsource | https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/5/848/1818669/fsr014.pdf | |
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