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dc.contributor.authorSimmonds, E. J.
dc.contributor.authorCampbell, A.
dc.contributor.authorSkagen, D.
dc.contributor.authorRoel, B. A.
dc.contributor.authorKelly, C.
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-20T16:24:45Z
dc.date.available2018-09-20T16:24:45Z
dc.date.issued2011-04-12
dc.identifier.citationSimmonds, E. J. Campbell, A.; Skagen, D.; Roel, B. A.; Kelly, C. (2011). Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus). ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 (5), 848-859
dc.identifier.issn1054-3139,1095-9289
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10379/13916
dc.description.abstractThe assumption of a relationship between recruitment and a spawning stock is the cornerstone of the precautionary approach and may constrain the use of a maximum sustainable yield (MSY) target for fisheries management, because the failure to include such a relationship suggests that providing a measure of stock protection is unnecessary. The implications of fitting different functional forms and stochastic distributions to stock-and-recruit data are investigated. The importance of these considerations is shown by taking a practical example from management: the management plan for Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), a fish stock with an average annual catch of 600 000 t. The historical range of spawning-stock biomass is narrow, and historical data from a stock assessment explain only a small proportion of the recruitment variability. We investigate how best to reflect the uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship. Selecting a single model based on simple statistical criteria can have major consequences for advice and is problematic. Selecting a distribution of models with derived probabilities gives a more complete perception of uncertainty in dynamics. Differences in functional form, distribution of deviations, and variability of coefficients are allowed. The approach appropriately incorporates uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship for F-MSY estimation.
dc.publisherOxford University Press (OUP)
dc.relation.ispartofICES Journal of Marine Science
dc.subjectfisheries management
dc.subjectmodel probability
dc.subjectstock-recruit relationship
dc.subjectpopulation-dynamics
dc.subjectfish recruitment
dc.subjectclimate-change
dc.subjectregime shifts
dc.subjectmanagement
dc.subjectecosystem
dc.subjectfisheries
dc.subjectsea
dc.subjectstrategy
dc.subjectproposal
dc.titleDevelopment of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus)
dc.typeArticle
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/icesjms/fsr014
dc.local.publishedsourcehttps://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/5/848/1818669/fsr014.pdf
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