The Impact of the Exchange Rate Regime on Exports: Evidence from the European Monetary System

Abstract

We employ the econometric techniques of multivariate cointegration and error-correction models to investigate the impact of the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) on the volume of intra-European Union (EU) exports for eight EU countries. We find that for France, Germany and Ireland, the EMS boosted the volume of intra-EU exports. In the rest of the countries, there has not been a significant effect. Another important result is that exchange rate volatility had no statistically significant long-run or short-run effect on the volume of intra-EU exports in the majority of the countries in our study.